The results of the US elections in Europe and the rest of the world were the main topic of debate at this meeting, which was attended by leading figures from the world of business and economics.
PROA Communicationa consultancy firm specialising in designing, managing and consolidating the communication and corporate reputation of institutions and companies, as well as of senior executives, has held a new edition of its Current Affairs Dialogues with the participation of Tom Burnscolumnist for the daily Expansión; Carlos Soutopolitical consultant, and moderated by Darío Lopérfidopolitical columnist and former Minister of Culture of Argentina.
The experts addressed the main challenges facing the new Republican Party administration, such as immigration policy, tariffs on imports from Europe, the trade war with China, the polarisation of society and the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
At the presentation of the Current Affairs DialogueThe meeting is small and guided by rules of confidentiality, Lucía Casanueva, managing partner of PROA Comunicación, pointed out that Europe, and therefore Spain, are going to be the target of two measures repeatedly announced by President Trump. The first is to raise tariffs on exports, and the second is to stop assuming military defence through NATO, whose financing will have to be reinforced from Brussels instead of at Washington's expense.
"The collapse of Kamala Harris, an improvised candidate to replace Joe Biden, is something more than a routine defeat for the Democratic Party, just as Trump's success is much more than an American issue," Casanueva stressed. Similarly, he pointed out that "Trump has spoken to Americans about security and work, the two issues that affect citizens all over the world and that condition their quality of life, and this has been key to his victory".
Darío Lopérfido began his moderation by stating that the assumption for weeks that there would be a dead heat between Trump and Harris "shows that the credibility of the American press is very questionable, as well as that of the pollsters".
For Tom BurnsThis Republican victory signifies a real paradigm shift" at the global level. "But these processes are always dangerous if they are not well managed, and on this occasion it comes together with a world situation that is going through the progressive decline of Europe, the irreversible consolidation of Putin in Russia and the unstoppable rise of China at the global level". For the columnist and political analyst, these will be key to glimpsing the future of the world economy and, in particular, that of Europe and Spain.
In the opinion of Carlos SoutoHarris had no chance of being president because she was never ready for it". For the political consultant, "the big strategic mistake, which Trump did not make, is that she positioned herself too much on issues that were not a priority for society as a whole, and leveraged herself on issues like abortion. But that doesn't win elections. If you forget the workers, you lose for sure", said Souto, who also agreed with Burns that Putin "is going to be strengthened by Trump".
Changes on the geopolitical chessboard
For Tom Burns The Democratic Party "made the mistake of not wanting to make changes and adapt to the needs of the American people", and this led to "an early defeat" that Harris did not know how to redirect towards the real challenges facing American society. Asked about the future impact of these elections, Burns stressed that one of the main fears that European democracies currently have to have "is that Putin's feet will not be stopped and that we will leave in the lurch a people, the Ukrainian people, who do not deserve what is happening".
In the opinion of Carlos SoutoTrump's new enemy will not be Russia, it will be China. "Europe will suffer as a result, because we have not evolved and it has aged too much, and now it is in a situation of need from which it cannot establish a coherent policy with China or the US, because it is not playing at the same level and has not grown at the same pace," Souto points out. "There will be an economic tsunami and this war will have a serious impact on Europe, and whatever Trump proposes will certainly not interest it", he pointed out. Despite this, he predicts that in these situations citizens "sometimes" react positively, "because when people are cornered they become brave and change the established dynamics", he said.
For the three experts, a new scenario is opening up that will trigger many regulatory and economic changes in Europe, which will have to be agile in defining its positions, as it could become an opportunity to "wake up from the lethargy in which it has been mired for too many years".