The elections in the United States and their impact on the war in Ukraine were the focus of this meeting, which was attended by leading figures from the economic and business spheres, as well as from the media.
PROA Communicationa consultancy firm specialising in designing, managing and consolidating communication, corporate reputation and public affairs for institutions and companies, as well as for senior executives, has held a new edition of its Current Affairs Dialogues with the participation of Argemino BarroUS correspondent for El Confidencial, La Sexta y Galician Television; y Carlos Soutorenowned global political consultant, founder of Souto Communications.
The US elections, the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House and the impact of these elections on Europe, NATO and the war in Ukraine were the focus of the dialogue, moderated by Lucía CasanuevaWe are living in times when threats to the world order are multiplying every day. "We are living in times when threats to the world order are multiplying every day. Since the Russian army invaded Ukraine for the second time in February 2022, the whole world has entered a period of instability that is affecting international relations, the economy and the quality of life all over the planet", Casanueva pointed out.
For Carlos Souto, the institutional deterioration experienced by the United States and the threat posed by the return of Donald Trump is a symptom of a larger phenomenon: "It is democracy around the world that is cracking, it is crumbling. Democracies are now falling apart from the inside out, not the other way around, as was the case before with external interventions".
For Argemino Barro, if Trump wins on 5 November, he will apply "a more extremist policy than in 2016", when he had to resort to establishment figures to form his government team. "It's been eight years, now there is a quarry of trumpitos as governors, in Congress and in think tanks. Instead of the 4,000 top officials who usually change in Washington with each administration, Trump intends to replace 50,000 federal officials with people who are absolutely loyal to him," said the New York correspondent.
However, the outcome of the race for the White House remains open today. "There are a lot of unhappy people and when a voter is unmotivated, you can't predict who they are going to vote for," Barro explained. "There are months to go and everything happens in those months of campaigning. It remains to be seen what will happen with the financing of campaigns, with the so-called Super PacFor the moment, Biden has the advantage, because the Democrats function as a very well-structured bloc, but Trump could still rally his own", said Souto, who as a consultant has worked on mobilising the Latino vote in past US presidential elections.
This public communication professional, who has won presidential and governmental elections throughout Latin America, and who since 2014 has been advising the Ministry of Sports of Qatar, among other governments, has stressed that "this is the year in which the world can change, because many hundreds of millions of people are voting in different countries, from the United States to India, and there have never been so many elections together as this year".
On the effects of a Trump victory on international geopolitics and the war in Ukraine, Barro warned: "I do not rule out a war between Russia and NATO at all. "Trump would hurt the Ukrainian cause. It has been leaked that his strategy would be peace for territory, as if this were the conflict of 2014, but it is not. Putin is going all out and he has time on his side", added the author of the books A History of Rus: Chronicling the War in Eastern Ukraine y The candidate and the fury.
In this sense, Lucía Casanueva also pointed out that "depending on who wins the US elections, the impact on our lives, and on our businesses, of the foreign policy of the world's leading power, could be very different". "I believe that Trump will change the status quo of the Ukrainian conflict, which is currently like a controlled roller coaster. In any case, the answer will be in Trump's ego and what can satisfy it," said Souto.
As for Putin's strategy towards Europe, both analysts agreed on the absolute secrecy surrounding Putin's plans, who has also managed to demobilise the population politically, despite the diversity that exists in Russian society. Because, as Barro pointed out, quoting Fyodor Tyutchev's poem, "Russia is not understood by the intellect".
As usual in these forums at the Madrid headquarters of PROA Comunicación, executives from different companies, business associations and media representatives participated. The Current Affairs Dialogues PROA Comunicación brings together key figures from the economic, political, media and cultural spheres with business people, executives and opinion leaders to contribute to a deeper knowledge of reality, and to foster an in-depth understanding of the issues that lead the news agenda.
"We are committed to excellence, talent and the contribution of ideas in each of the projects that carry our brand", concluded Lucía Casanueva.
