Something came to my mind that I have already witnessed in some election campaigns in which I have participated over the last few years. It is common to see specialised polling companies approaching me to make tailor-made" election pollsI have never seen any unprofessional behaviour, but it is clear that closeness to a given candidacy introduces a voluntarist bias, especially when the results are very close. I have never seen any unprofessional behaviour, but it is clear that closeness to a given candidacy introduces a voluntarist bias - especially when the results are very close - which could condition, in a certain way, the result. I also believe that the use of CIS surveys for electoral purposes in recent years may have influenced and generated the need for the parties to distance themselves from them and move towards privately owned polling companies.
The failure of the polls is not in the size of the samples (the CIS has handled samples of more than 19,000 valid interviews), nor in the methodology (the one that has come closest, 40DB for PRISA, used online surveys). The reason lies, in my view, in the way in which the parties make us interpret the numbersThe Popular Party's popularity has been rising, especially in internal polls, in which they even estimated 160 seats for the Popular Party.
In the words of the sociologist and professor Juan José Tohariaone of the most authoritative voices in Spanish polling, "leaving aside the CIS, which plays in a different league and does not get it right even when it gets it wrong, we need to further refine our ability to pick up on soulwavesThe new data, which so far seem to be below what our radar can measure with the required accuracy.
Read more El Confidencial the full tribune of Juan Cardonamember of the Advisory Board of PROA Comunicación.