The acceleration that has infected our lives has also reached political cycles. A month in the 21st century is much longer than a year in the 20th century, and a year is equivalent to a decade. When the motion of censure that brought Pedro Sánchez to government with the help of a heterogeneous group of partners seems to us to be part of history, the photo that emerges on 26 May leaves behind, in a very short time, the snapshot of the election results of 28 April.
Less than a month ago, the PSOE achieved a large but weak parliamentary majority, Vox had entered the Spanish political landscape with unusual force and Ciudadanos was claiming a place at the table of the elders, with many rushing to proclaim Rivera the leader of the opposition. Little remains of all that, yesterday's election results redraw a political map that few dared to predict less than a month ago..
The most striking change is related to the Partido Popular, which many rushed to bury in April. In one month the Popular Party has improved between 4 and 6 points in percentage of the vote (between 400,000 and one million more votes in European and municipal elections), surpassing the symbolic 20% barrier in both. Despite obtaining a worse result than in 2015, with more than 20,000 councillors across Spain, the PP is in a position to achieve government in more provincial capitals (23), and in more major cities (45 with more than 50,000 inhabitants), including the Community of Madrid and the capital of Spain. Moreover, they have the government by pact in four autonomous communities (which would be added to Galicia and Andalusia), almost half of Spain's population, and the government of Navarre is within reach of the socialist abstention, thanks to their union with Ciudadanos and UPN.
Sunday's elections show that the only alternative to the PSOE in Spain is the Partido Popular. The difference with Ciudadanos is between 2 and 3 million votes. (depending on which national election we want to choose). Vox has lost between half and two thirds of its votes and the PP is the government alternative to the PSOE in all provinces and in all provincial capitals in Spain.
Beyond maintaining territorial power, these results have an essential strategic consequence, as they place Ciudadanos at a strategic crossroads that could determine its political future: to once again become a hinge party that puts in and takes out governments or, despite the results, to continue working to lead the opposition, albeit in four years' time.
But, be in no doubt, in the coming months everything can change again.
Rafa Rubio
Expert in political communication