The teacher Thorsten Polleit, Chief Economist at Degussa, Europe's leading company in investment gold tradingforecasts that the price of the precious metal will increase by 10% throughout 2018 and estimates that the evolution of the Spanish economy will be positive this year, with a year-on-year GDP growth slightly higher than in 21Q2013 and a continued fall in unemployment.
Professor Polleit made the following statements during the presentation of his report Opportunities and risks for investors in 2018'.The event was held today at the headquarters of the precious metals investment company in Madrid. The speaker was introduced by the newly appointed Degussa's director in Spain, Tomás EpeldeguiHe highlighted the brilliant professional career of the author of the German company's fortnightly economic analyses.
Professor Polleit stressed that Spain, "as a fairly open economy", will clearly benefit from positive foreign trade developments.The report is in line with developments in the eurozone and the rest of the world, for which it expects a rapid economic expansion in 2018, "driven by ultra-loose monetary policy by central banks". A situation that, in his opinion, will lead to a rise in inflation due to the increase in the level of general indebtedness and the rise in the price of assets such as shares and real estate. All this will lead to an erosion of the purchasing power of money.
The speaker showed, by means of expressive graphics, that the Gross Domestic Product in the United States, the Eurozone, Japan and the United Kingdom is on a clear upward trend.The report also points to a strong recovery in the Chinese business cycle, "which is pushing commodity prices upwards", despite the slowdown that the Asian giant has been experiencing since 2008.
The "safety net" that central banks have put in place in financial markets, pushing interest rates into negative territory, has, in Professor Polleit's view, caused investors to engage in "risky" transactions.
questionable and risky investments, as well as "causing a major moral hazard problem". Monetary policies which, in certain areas, such as the United Kingdom or the United StatesThe price of housing has been inflated.
As for the euro area, he sees a problem with the large size of a banking system "that the ECB is preventing from shrinking" and notes that "a well-performing US stock market should put pressure on the euro against the dollar".
As far as gold is concerned, Thorsten Polleit estimates that "people should consider gold as a currency and as a portfolio insurance", as its current price is "relatively cheap". and is an insurance "against the vagaries of the boom driven by unbacked paper money". In this respect, he highlighted during his speech the fact that in the last 20 years gold has increased in price by just over 300%The company's share price is expected to rise by a further 10% this year.
With this in mind, Professor Polleit concluded that "there are good reasons for investors to keep some of their liquidity in gold, as holding money in accounts or deposits loses purchasing power".
Thorsten Polleit is also Honorary Professor of Economics at the University of Bayreuth since 2014, as well as Adjunct Professor at the Ludwig von Mises Institute (Auburn, Alabama USA) and President of the Ludwig von Mises Institut Deutschland. In 2012, he was awarded the O.P. Alford III Prize in Political Economy. He has also worked for international investment banks and is co-founder and macroeconomic advisor of the P&R REAL VALUE fund. He writes frequently for newspapers and magazines and is the author of several books.